The new report published by BlackRock shows countries that are facing a higher probability of default based on their budget items placing Greece first from the bottom and enhancing the concerns of IMF and Angela Merkel about the debt sustainability and the possibility of early elections.
The report is analyzed by the political parties in different ways and mainly based on election campaign conditions. The government commented that “the situation is still fragile and if the policy followed is not continued, then bankruptcy is unavoidable”, whereas the opposition stated that “the policy that is followed by the government will lead to bankruptcy”.
The main points of Blackrock’s report are:
1. Greece is ranked 50th, meaning that the country faces the highest risk of bankruptcy worldwide (along with Argentina, Ukraine, Venezuela and Pakistan).
2. Greece’s public finances are still bad: IMF, ECB and EU agree that the improvement in public finances was partly “technical” but it was necessary so as to stop things getting worse. However, they admit that without economic growth, the program imposed is not possible to succeed.
3. Banks are at a greater risk than the state itself: Greece is ranked third in world ranking as for the the financial problems, but as for the evaluation of its financial sector is second following Venezuela.
The most important thing, though, derived from BlackRock’s report is not what Greece is doing to avoid bankruptcy, but rather what Europe and US will do to avoid a global collapse, since all countries are somehow at risk of bankruptcy. Italy, Ireland, Portugal have financial problems, while France, Denmark, Switzerland and even China are considered to be countries of high risk as for the financial sector.