Even if the major opposition Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) wins elections and scraps deals with international lenders, Greece will probably stay in the Eurozone, the Moody’s ratings agency has said.
New bank controls have been put in place in the Eurozone since Greece triggered a crisis by needing bailouts and Eurozone officials are more confident the bloc could even withstand an exit by the country.
Moody’s also said there is less risk of a contagion to other countries if Greece leaves or is forced out by refusing to pay back some or all of the 240 billion euros ($306 billion) it has received from the Troika of the European Union-International Monetary Fund-European Central Bank (EU-IMF-ECB) in two rescue packages since 2010.
“The likelihood of a Greek exit is still lower than during the peak of the crisis in 2012 and remains relatively unlikely,” Moody’s said, but added the political turmoil in the country had increased the chances of such a scenario.
“This higher risk could have negative credit implications for other members of the European single currency, despite contagion risks being materially lower than at the peak of the crisis,” it added.