It would surprise us if current negotiations do not result in a compromise ensuring that Greece, at least for the time being, will remain in the Eurozone.
No thanks to Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ Game Theory.
None either to the Germans being emotionally moved by the solidarity the Greek people have shown in backing their new leader, Alexis Tsipras. They are not.
Moreover, a compromise will not materialize because European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would lose any sleep if Greece was out of the Eurozone. He wouldn’t.
The reason is none of the above: it is because of the role the United States is playing for its own geopolitical interests, in advocating for Greece’s cause.
We remind that President Obama specifically pressed German Chancellor Angela Merkel about Greece in their recent joint press conference. And that he encouraged her to develop a strategy of growth for the Greek economy withing the Eurozone .
The United States continues to lobby intensely for Greece. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew spoke directly with Tsipras on Feb. 13 – not with his Greek counterpart Varoufakis – while Secretary of State John Kerry spoke with his own counterpart in the Greek government, Nikos Kotzias.
We can easily surmise that similar phone calls were made by the Americans to Germany, and elsewhere. What did they talk about? It is not difficult to imagine.
Essentially, that in a tumultuous world from the dangerous crisis in Ukraine, to a Middle East fast approaching the brink of disaster – with a looming threat over Israel about a potentially nuclear Iran – and an unpredictable Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership, the last thing the United States would need is the destabilization of Greece and increasing influence by Moscow spreading in Athens and Cyprus.
America’s strong support of Greece after World War II, as evidenced by the Truman Doctrine, was not for naught. Certainly, the United States would not let those efforts go to waste and allow Greece to fall into Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s clutches, over a few billion euros.
That is why we believe that, even as the Germans will continue to insist upon the agreed-upon conditions, the Eurozone’s principles and values, and the need for reforms on the part of Greece , in the end they will agree on a formula that will simply kick the can down the road, for now.
A formula that both Tsipras and Merkel can present to their respective nations as a “win-win.”
Until the next crisis.