The question is, who will blink first, Greece or Germany?
Most reasonable people would say that depends on who has the greatest need. And that is not Germany.
The clock is ticking. Greece must reach an agreement within a few days.
If that does not happen, Pandora’s Box will open and what emerges will hit the people of Greece and the Tsipras government very hard.
The Europeans too, but much less.
Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says that time is the most valuable commodity. The question is, how much time is left?
It is clear by now that Prime Minister Tsipras, under strenuous time constraints, is looking for a lifeline.
Thus, he has begun his attempts to fool the people. For example, the troika has been re-Christened “the representatives of the institutions.”
Yet, a critical issue looms: to what extent can politicians deceive voters before elections and what price should they pay when the people figure out the fraud?
In the Greek context, the current government appears to be fighting to keep its promises to the people, but is confronted with a different reality in Europe.
It would certainly be a thousand times better to tell the truth: “O fellow Greeks, we fought, we struggled, but in the end we did not get the desired results. So, instead of leading the country into adventures, we considered it our patriotic duty to retreat.”
The people surely would show more understanding if they were spoken to in that manner, rather than with a spirit of deception.
Germany has the support of all the other Eurozone countries, each for its own reasons.
The consensus is that changing the rules midstream for Greece would destroy the Eurozone’s credibility. Why make an exception in Greece and not, say, in Spain?
Greece ‘s strategy is based on “don’t press us or we will jump of the cliff and take you all with us”. Would that work?
The Germans have taken precautions. They will have to deal with economic turmoil and pain, but that will be temporary.
What they are not prepared to do is to continue to deal every now and then with the effects of the ongoing Greek crisis. Simply put, they are tired of that game.
The only friend Greece has is the USA and that is for geopolitical reasons.
So if Greece manages to pass this crises too it will be due to the pressure applied on the Europeans by the USA and nothing else.